Beef, Veal & Lamb
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The live cattle market continues to move downward and is currently trading at some of its lowest price levels since November. In turn, beef production is surging. Beef output last week rose 8.3% and was 8% more than 2005. Most of the beef markets are declining and additional decreases may be impending due in part to typical lethargic March beef demand. However, if the cattle market does not continue to weaken with beef, packers may curtail beef output later this month in an attempt to boost beef prices. Prices per pound FOB from USDA.
Dairy
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January butter output was 13.1% more than 2005 and the largest monthly output in 13 years. The butter market has turned lower. Butter demand may improve this month as buyers secure product for Easter and Passover, but engaging butter prices are likely to persist. January American (1.5%) and cheddar (.4%) cheese output were less than a year ago while mozzarella production was 3.3% more than 2005. The cheese markets are stabilizing. January sour cream output was 8.2% larger than last year. Prices per pound, except Class I Cream (hundred weight), from USDA.
Poultry
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The chicken breast markets have edged modestly higher in recent weeks but remain relatively depressed. Retail and food service chicken breast feature activity is on the rise which could bring a boost to chicken breast prices. Last year, the boneless skinless chicken breast market rose 8.7% during the next 4 weeks. Still, chicken breast prices are projected to remain notably below 2005 levels this spring. The chicken wing markets are tracking downward and additional decreases may be impending. Africa, Asia and Europe continue to contend with the H5N1 strain of avian flu. Prices per pound except eggs (dozen) FOB from USDA.
Seafood
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January Gulf of Mexico shrimp landings were 29.6% more than last year and 28.6% greater than the 5-year average due to a surge in output in Florida and Texas. Louisiana shrimp landings were 13.3% less than the 5-year average. As worldwide shrimp production begins to build next month shrimp prices may move modestly downward. The snow crab leg market continues to creep upward rising 7.5% over the last 4 weeks. Prices for fresh product, unless noted per pound from Fisheries Market News.
Pork
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Pork production last week rose 1.1% and was .9% more than 2005. As pork output has been managed over the last month the pork markets have moved higher. Declining alternative protein prices could cause the pork markets to stabilize. Higher rib prices may be forthcoming. The last 2 years, the sparerib market jumped notably during the last week of March and rose 5% through the end of April. Prices per pound FOB from USDA.
Produce
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The lettuce markets are moving lower as lettuce head weights improve with the warmer weather. However, cooler temperatures are forecasted in the lettuce growing areas which could cause production to slow. The lettuce markets may be volatile during the next week. Some of the Idaho potato markets have turned lower for the first time in 6 weeks. Additional modest potato price decreases may be forthcoming but the potato markets are anticipated to remain notably above 2005 levels into April. Prices USDA FOB shipping point unless noted (terminal).
Oil and Grains
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Much needed rain may fall in the Southern Plains this week which would greatly help the winter wheat crop. Still, additional precipitation will be necessary. Wheat prices could be erratic through the end of the month. Prices per pound (oils) or bushel (grains) FOB from USDA.
Canned and Frozen Food
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Tomato Products, Canned - Our initial forecast has 2006 California contracted tomato acreage (283,000- 8%) and output (10.75m tons- 12%) rising from last year. Existing canned tomato stocks are adequate and the markets are steady. Still, history suggests that lower prices may be pending this spring. Price per case (6/10) FOB from Supply and Market Report.
Processed Fruits and Vegetables - Acreage contract negotiations between potato growers and french fry suppliers are in progress. Growers are looking to increase potato prices to help offset the estimated 16% rise in input expenses. Steady to modestly higher french fry prices are likely this spring. Prices FOB per case from Supply and Market Report.
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- I am the expert you call when you need to learn how to increase top line sales, lower your operating costs, increase your profit margin, hire and train better managers and staff, evolve your operation into more and better ways of doing business, buy or sell a restaurant, improve your service, engineer (or re-engineer!) your menu, market your business better and less expensively, keep yourself from going nuts because you have no life anymore, open more and better restaurants, don't want to have to give up your first born child to pay a consultant and have more fun! My mission is to enhance the quality of life for my clients by providing the best products and services to help them achieve their personal and professional goals. I take great pride in my clients, my company, my commitment to service and the products I sell. I am a recognized expert in the hospitality industry with over 24 years of success at planning and executing strategies for delivering dramatic results, a former "GM of the Year" for 2 major, full-service, franchises, an Award winning Multi-Unit Executive with 2 of the largest restaurant chains in the U.S., published author, husband and father of two.